A dealer in Sussex now sells into a certificate base of about 16,000 holders whose force decided 27% of new applications inside the 120-day guideline in the year to the end of August, and about a quarter of renewals. The force told its police and crime commissioner this month that its licensing workload could double in 2027, and it is recruiting to meet it. For the trade the question is not whether the bulge arrives, but how many sales it delays on the way through.

What are the Sussex figures?

Assistant Chief Constable Steve Rayland gave the numbers to Katy Bourne’s performance and accountability meeting in October, Brighton and Hove News reported. In the year to June the force handled 850 new firearm licences and 3,100 renewals; in the first six months of the year just over half of applications met the 120-day guideline, against a force target of 80%. By the end of August the new-grant figure had fallen to 27%. The team is working through legacy cases while trying to hold newer applications inside the guideline.

“Once we have those plans, we are going to assess how we’re able to respond,” Mr Rayland said of the demand analysis under way. “We know it’s coming. We’re looking at trying to address it and trying to manage the backlog demand.”

Why does the pandemic cohort matter to the trade?

Certificates granted during the pandemic, when much of the process ran online and fewer home visits took place, run for five years and are now falling due together. Every application now needs a home visit, and Mr Rayland said each case also carries social media checks, visits to children and to everyone at the applicant’s address, and checks for any history of domestic abuse. More work per case, on more cases at once, in a team already carrying a backlog: that is the arithmetic a dealer’s 2027 order book sits on.

Mrs Bourne said Sussex’s 16,000 holders is a high count for a single-county force; Thames Valley Police has about 20,000 across three counties. “That’s where a few forces have come a cropper,” she said of the renewals bulge. “They didn’t understand and were caught short.”

What should dealers plan for?

A grant that takes most of a year defers a first gun, its cabinet and its first season’s cartridges with it; a renewal that overruns leaves a customer on a temporary permit and a counter staff member checking its terms before a sale; a variation stuck in the same queue holds a rifle on the shelf for a buyer who has already paid a deposit. Dealers in Sussex should expect customers to arrive with less certificate time in hand than they think, and dealers everywhere should note that the pandemic cohort is national and every force will see it at once. Prompting customers whose certificates fall due in 2027 to apply early is in the shop’s interest as much as the customer’s.

Where does reform stand?

His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire and Rescue Services found in August that firearms licensing across England and Wales was not fit for purpose and recommended a national licensing authority to replace the 43 force units, the structural change BASC and the Countryside Alliance have argued for. The Government has not yet set a timetable, so each force’s performance remains its own.

What happens next

Sussex Police will set out how it responds once its demand analysis is complete. The trade will read the answer in the time its customers wait, and the figure to watch is the share of grants and renewals inside 120 days as the 2027 cohort arrives.

Useful links

Sussex Police – the force recruiting more staff for its licensing team

Brighton and Hove News – the local democracy report from the accountability meeting

ShootingUK – the group’s full account of the Sussex meeting

Frequently asked questions

How many applications did Sussex Police decide in time?

In the year to the end of August 2026, 27% of new certificate applications and about a quarter of renewals were processed inside the 120-day national guideline.

Why does the force expect its workload to double?

Certificates granted during the pandemic, when processing ran online with fewer home visits, run for five years and are now falling due together, and every case now requires a home visit and wider checks.

What can a dealer do about licensing delays?

Prompt customers whose certificates fall due in 2027 to apply early, check temporary permits carefully at the counter, and plan 2027 stock on the assumption that grants and variations will run slower than the guideline.

Related articles

Shrinking certificate base and slower grants squeeze the pipeline – the national grant figures behind the trade’s pipeline

Licensing overhaul goes on the statutory record – what the Chief Inspector’s report means for the trade

Home Office hands licensing delays to the forces – why each force’s pace is its own