Two numbers in the latest firearms licensing release matter to the trade more than the headline does. The certificate-holder base in England and Wales is down 2.8% since the third quarter of 2025/26, and grants are now reported separately from renewals for the first time. One measures the size of the market; the other, at last, measures the rate at which new customers can enter it.

What do the figures show?

The National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) release for Q1 2026/27, covering the 12 months to 30 June 2026, shows national service level performance against the four-month standard easing from 70.67% to 70.21%, the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. Temporary permits rose 11.5% on the previous quarter to 3,449 and are up 83% across the five quarters reviewed. The British Shooting Sports Council (BSSC) published its analysis on 8 August, saying it “remains concerned that the rise in issuance of permits reflects licensing departments under stress”.

Why does the certificate base matter commercially?

Because it is the addressable market. Every section 1 sale, every shotgun transfer, every ammunition purchase over the counter and a substantial share of the accessory trade sits downstream of somebody holding a valid certificate. A 2.8% contraction since Q3 2025/26 is not a collapse, but it is a measurable narrowing of the base, and it compounds if it continues. Retailers modelling next year’s turnover on a flat customer count are modelling on an assumption the data no longer supports.

What does the grants and renewals split give the trade?

Evidence it has not had before. The BSSC welcomed the change, warning that “a single blended SLA figure can mask much slower performance on new applications than on renewals”. For the trade the distinction is the difference between a delayed customer and an absent one. A renewal in the queue is an existing customer, still shooting, still buying cartridges, possibly holding a temporary permit. A grant in the queue is a customer who does not exist yet: no gun, no ammunition, no kit, no lessons, nothing until the certificate arrives.

If the separated figures confirm that grants run materially slower than renewals, that is a quantified drag on new-entrant recruitment and it can be put in front of officials as such, rather than argued from anecdote. It is also directly relevant to the participation work the sector funds: recruiting new shooters is worth less if the licensing system takes months to admit them.

What should dealers do about it?

Three practical things follow. First, know your own force’s numbers rather than the national average, because the NPCC publishes force-by-force tables and a dealer’s catchment is usually one or two forces, not 43. Second, manage the expectation at the point of sale: a customer told honestly that a variation may take longer than four months is a customer who comes back, while one told it will be fine is a complaint waiting to happen. Third, count the pipeline properly: orders contingent on a variation are not sales until the paperwork lands, and cash flow planned as though they are will mislead.

What happens next

The NPCC publishes quarterly, so the next release covers the autumn renewal season, the busiest stretch of the licensing year and the one most likely to show whether the four-month standard is stabilising. The BSSC’s analysis is on its website and the full data is published by the NPCC.

Useful links

British Shooting Sports Council – the umbrella body’s analysis of the Q1 2026/27 figures

National Police Chiefs’ Council – the quarterly licensing data with the force-by-force tables

Frequently asked questions

How far has the certificate-holder base fallen?

Down 2.8% since the third quarter of 2025/26, continuing a steady decline, according to the NPCC data.

What is the service level standard forces work to?

Completion of an application within four months of receipt. National performance fell from 70.67% to 70.21% in the latest quarter, the fourth consecutive decline.

Why does the grants and renewals split matter to dealers?

It separates delayed existing customers from absent new ones. A renewal in the queue still trades; a grant in the queue is a customer who cannot buy anything until the certificate is issued.

Related articles

Licensing failures mount in England and Wales – the force-by-force detail behind the national average

Firearms licensing fees rise – what applicants now pay for the service being measured

Palantir firearms licensing contract – the systems work behind police licensing administration